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Hypothesis of UAP

Outline

The Compaction Concept illustrates how development of earth-based technology and systems can reasonably create increasingly capable transport vehicles, and provides evidence for certain aspects of the nature of eventual production of advanced craft.

The UAP Model posits some features of UAP as theoretical phenomena, referencing the implications of the Compaction Concept. Concepts such as extreme numerosity, self sufficiency and super-integration are discussed. 

A Near-Term EVTOL is described as an intermediate step in the eventual production of a craft that resembles or approaches the capabilities of the UAP, using established or shortly-expected methods.

The EVTOL-Primitive Analogy illustrates a known example of how technically advanced and less advanced cultures interact based on established terrestrial events, and suggests that the UAP phenomena might be a version of this situation.

General Attitude to Observed Phenomena

This hypothesis, and it’s subsequent implications  is not reliant on any single or individual UAP, event, case or sighting. 

Although there will be no specific incidences, sightings or events referenced or analysed within by this theory, it can and should be relatable to such phenomena as it is experienced, but, as a generalised philosophy, the ideas herein are not reliant on any single event or sighting. The theory is based on the overarching documented UAP concept.

When dealing with such observed phenomena, there is always the possibility of 

Computer generated imagery

Mistaken identification of earth origin craft (experimental military)

Unusual weather phenomenon 

Or a combination of the above.  However, due to a historically documented occurrence, one can make inferences based on the idea that some events possibly represent non-human intelligence. The work that follows is a combination of this implication and more established cosmological and historical principles.

The models and concepts can then be used to broadly interpret past and potential phenomena events.

As will be demonstrated, the Model suggests that phenomena events may not reveal short term significant information. 

The basis of the Theorem is therefore generalised and theoretical. Although it implies there is no detriment in investigating, analysing and recording UAP in the sense of observed phenomena, the field is dealt with here only in it’s broader context.

The key principle is that science as is known is incomplete in terms of possible achievement and there exists great scope for constructing more advanced technology based on the improvement of existing methods. 

Specified particular definitions as used:

Modern Collective

the generalised state and grouping of what is sometimes called ‘modern humanity’, or ‘earth based civilization’ in comparison to what is termed the Primitive Collective as explained in the Analogy 

EVTOL

a modern flying craft propelled by electric power systems, capable of vertical take off and landing and also possessing a high degree of representative technology in the general sense. Such machines are existent currently in experimental form, but not yet in widespread use

NT-EVTOL

A proposed advancement of the EVTOL format that incorporates potential and near-term technological advancements, as far as can be known

UAP

a fast moving craft of unknown origin, displaying manoeuvre capabilities beyond conventionally known flight capabilities of known human created vehicles, appearing either visually or on some form of observational medium without conventional explanation. The use of this term is made both in a sense of the existing understanding, and of a definition proposed and clarified subsequently in these theories. 

Compaction Concept

Here we’ll show how it is reasonable that the trend of planetary technology trends towards  ‘compaction’ of techniques to produce EVTOL like craft, and subsequently (if successful)  to produce UAP-like vehicles. 

Examples of Compaction

Consider a motor vehicle in 1900: it is slower, less manoeuvrable and of a simpler construction and performance in every way. A 2023 modern mass production vehicle is evidently much more sophisticated. But the speed and efficiency of the car is only one facet of technology acting as a whole. 

In 1800 a collection of a thousand books might weigh a few tons, and require a decently constructed library building to house them. In 2000, those equivalent thousand books might be stored on a portable hard drive weighing a few kilograms. What amounts, then, to the combination of hard-drive and car? Not only do we have a faster, safer, comfier car but also an entire public library within it. If we equate a telephone line to a messenger on horseback, then the phone in our pocket represents some notional quantity of lightning fast steeds. With plastics, food can be stored with an airtight seal that is lighter than a previous wood or metal storage, and so on. All this, combined with the vehicle, represents exponential progress in the reach and ability of the end-product machine, with each metric supporting the others in some increase of capability. 

The ISS currently houses a waste-recycling system that can take human urine and process it into drinkable water with reasonable efficiency. The machine, which took decades to develop, is bulky, prone to breaking down and energy hungry. But the conceptual idea, if developed, may by the reasoning above eventually create a highly compact, portable and energy efficient system of much greater capability. 

It has also been proved possible to manufacture consumable protein using only bacteria and electricity, although as yet only in small amounts. But one day, if combined, the potential of waste-recycling and protein production is some vehicle that would be capable of generating on board fuel and water with only a small input of solar power. If the vehicle is electrically driven, then it’s range and self-sustainability becomes limited by the durability of it’s components and the need to repair and maintain them. If this requirement can be fulfilled well, then perhaps a spacecraft is possible that can sustain an occupant for thousands of years, with no re-supply or outside support.  

It was a popular science factoid that the human brain uses ‘less energy than a household lightbulb’. Household lightbulbs are now often more efficient LEDs, compared to the incadesants common when this statement was popular, but the basis of the statement is that the brain operates on around 25 watts of electricity, or a quarter of that provided by a typical solar panel. There is, of course, a difference between the way energy is transferred in a biological system (via the molecule ATP) and the 12 volt dc current output of the panel, but the idea is that it does not take a significant amount of energy for the essential task of cognition.

While only achieved in small quantities, the idea represents the sort of mechanisms that are obviously useful in deep space travel. What cannot so easily be stated is the effect of these methods when developed to the extreme. And, just as the car/library demonstrates, unconnected techniques will converge. 

Integration with biology

We can see how as information technology becomes smaller, it is added to our lives in ways that are portable and  does not take up significant physical space, at least at the user end. As methods approach the computational efficiency of biology, we are likely to see great enhancement of ability at the ‘edge’, ie with less reliance on external or distant servers and hard-wiring. 

If technology can enhance the body, it can enhance it more when the technology itself is transportable in the extreme degree. 

Eventual terrestrial production of UAP – like craft

It is clear that if the trends continue: more efficient use of energy, lighter, stronger materials, integration with the occupant, and development of advanced physics required for propulsion, it should be possible at some point that humanity may produce a vehicle with characteristics similar as witnessed in (some) UAP phenomena.

UAP Model

Basic statement of Model:

If terrestrial history and technology trends towards production of UAP like craft, then it implies that UAP as observed might plausibly have been derived in a similar way. 

Therefore, some UAP phenomena represent:

Extreme technology compaction and self sufficiency

Planetary derivation (at least potentially for a portion) 

High integration of biology within Craft

Extreme in quantity and variety

 Extreme technology

One of the most characteristic and  obvious properties of the phenomena is the extreme manoeuvre and aeronautical performance of the UAP. This follows from the Compaction Concept.

But applying the Concept it also follows that any other capabilities might also be similarly advanced, and to the extent than any single craft possess capability equal or in excess of our entire eathly civilization.

It would be reasonable to suspect that UAP systems are altogether more sophisticated than our own, and should not be surprised if any particular quantifiable system is perhaps as advanced as our total current civilisational potential. Some specifics might include navigation and co-ordination methods that exist in some way similar to that of air traffic control on earth. Mathematical theorems suggest that navigation and co-ordination in 3 dimensional  space differs in significant ways from that which applies to the 2-dimensional plane, and there are no doubt many nuances to uncover. 

Sensing and detection systems are also likely to be advanced, for example radio-astronomy that requires arrays of large antenna and optical astronomy that requires large shaped lens might be achievable using compact systems.

Perhaps worryingly, in terms of weaponry, a single UAP could unleash the destructive force of thousands of atomic bombs, equivalent to stockpiles of the largest  nations on earth presently. This proposal is unnerving, but it will have to be accommodated for no matter how much it is liked. In any case, the individual human is fragile in the face of explosives, bullets, and shells etc, and it is unavoidably so. 

Self sufficiency is supposed, since it is unquestionably useful in the exploration and existence in deep space. As the compaction concept suggests, there is no reason to suppose UAP are not also highly developed in this aspect.

Integration with biology

The statement of integration with biology was made in the compaction concept, and it will be elaborated on here. 

Modern earth medicine has, for many years, been in the process of creating artificial organs and means of sustaining the body when the natural systems break down. At the time of writing it is not possible to completely replace the functions of the torso, and we cannot maintain a living brain with purely mechanical devices yet. Today, individual organs are substituted only in the most dire of emergencies, for the organs where it is possible, and the technology cannot yet provide functioning that is better than the fleshy original. Such techniques are indeed the preserve of those wealthy enough to afford them, and there are millions of people with absolutely no hope of receiving a device of this development, even where they exist currently. But, if the general trend is continued, the scaling and mass adoption of such feats of engineering may one day be possible. The rather disturbing notion of a brian suspended in some vat, with nutrients pumped in from the outside, is a science fiction concept, and maybe a horrible one. But, if one were to consider the brain to be not trapped in a vat, but controlling a space-craft with extreme capabilities, then perhaps one can see that the concept has some utility.

If we take the UAP to be the creation of a planetary civilization in some distant past, then it follows that the race had some form of biological body. Astrobiology might conclude that the environment of the originating planet is the key factor in defining a life-form, with parameters of atmosphere, gravity, day length and penetrating radiation will determining to some extent which the lifeforms, including ‘intelligent’ ones that can survive on a planet. 

However, once technology advances to the stage of serious interstellar travel, it follows that 

there is no requirement for most or even any of this original biological form to be retained.

The biological form, as dictated by the narrow circumstances of the planet it developed on, has no utility in space. It cannot live outside of the spacecraft in the void, and the number of planets with the suitable requirements would be incredibly rare. It might be suggested that one of the principle spurs for the creation of technology in the first place is survival in difficult environments. 

But if an advanced species has a sufficiently advanced ship, then leaving may well be unnecessary.  

As the Compaction Concept suggests the space ship of the future to be less like a series of rooms that house a person, so it might suggest that UAP do not have any serious corporeal existence outside their space-faring craft.  

Of vast quantity

The original formal classification of ‘UFO’ phenomena was made by Joseph Allen Hyek, but was not widely adopted. 

The difference between reported encounters, actual encounters, and unobserved presence hinders any precise measure of just how frequently ‘genuine’ UAP are present on earth. The US military has collected many ‘non explainable’ sightings over the course of a decade, and the events are uncommon enough to be notable. However, human perception is, in comparison to the amount of known 3 dimensional space, incredibly limited. 

The scale of the solar system and beyond perhaps exceeds the comprehension of the human mind, to the point it is somewhat perturbing to consider.  Astronomers casually reference ideas such as the solar system or this or that nebula, but the scales involved are not illustrated so often, as they aren’t compatible with common experiences. 

If we try and avoid too much anthropocentricity and the assumption that our small corner is particularly special overall in this analysis, and suppose that there isn’t any huge reason to visit in particular, then the possibility is that the tiny number of UAP phenomena seen on our timescale might be an incredibly small fraction of what is existent in the wider cosmological area.   

If one were to imagine the sun as being the size of a grain of sand, then the nearest star, called by us Proxima Centuri, would be equivalent to another grain of sand 3km away. At this scale, the Milky Way galaxy is 6,000 km wide. But one also has to realise that the actual size of the sun is 1.3 million km in diameter, and it is difficult to comprehend just how big this is. 

Even if average UAP density is in the order of one craft per 10 million km3, and therefore the total number in even a tiny fraction of ‘local’ area easily reaches double-digit exponents, i.e. 10~26 individuals within the Oort cloud alone. Assuming that this solar-system density represents something like a  ‘background’ level, then the total number of UAP in the greater cosmos dwarfs humanity much in the way the isolated Amazon tribe is dwarfed by the cities and towns of those termed ‘modern’. Numbers are more similar to the number of plankton in the sea than the people and animals on land, and it might be that  all planet based multi-cell life, if we suppose it exists elsewhere, is a cosmological minority by a wide margin. If correct, in terms of ‘hierarchy’ we would occupy a slim position between the singe-cell organisms and the more complex but maybe very numerous UAP.

There is a tendency when considering high technology to assume than advancement is equivalent to expense and therefore rarity. 

While this may be true at the level of current human operation, it will be shown later on that this may not be the case on interplanetary and cosmological scales, at least as it relates to our relative position. This topic is discussed in more detail in the Manufacturing section. 

In the 1500s, scientists used ground glass to build lenses capable of observing very small micro-organisms. It was found that in even a single drop of seawater, there were thousands of these creatures, but as an observation it could not have been proved without the aid of the magnifying tool. There had been a few  speculations in literature that such creatures may exist, but it took direct observation to bring the notion into undisputed orthodoxy.

Plankton, algae, the sperm and young of larger animals exist in great numbers in just a tiny drop – but if one casts their gaze to the wider sea from which this drop came, it can only be wondered just how many total micro-organisms there are in this vastness of  ocean.  

It is now scientific orthodoxy that the sun and stars are considered celestial bodies of the same type, but it required many centuries of observation and equipment to reach this conclusion widely. (The earliest suggestion in literature of this notion is credited to Giordano Bruno, but it was not widely accepted until 400 years later.)

If one considers that the it is mainly the proximity of the sun and the distance of the stars that disguises their equivalence, then one should not find it too surprising that that the uniqueness ascribed to human affairs turns out to be a result of an extreme lack of perspective – and when one considers the scale of the plankton in the water drop, one should perhaps realise that our own place in the wider scheme may likely be something similar.

As has already been suggested, if the model is correct then our civilization is not, on the galactic scale, of any particular relevance. 

Even if planetary life is somewhat rare, since it is dwarfed by the numbers of the UAP, we can deduce that UAP might be more interested in each other than some simplistic planet dwellers who still use chemical rockets.

Of vast variety

The second implication of vast quantity is also that there may also exist a variety of ‘types’ off UAP that would be hard to assess by our current means. 

On our civlisational timescale, we may not encounter, or be capable of classifying the entire variety of phenomena that we see in a meaningful sense. It would also be sensible to suppose we are not yet capable of understanding types or categories in a meaningful sense.

Likely longevity

If the Compaction Concept is correct, then earth-like technology use is capable of producing UAP like technology, eventually. If this is the case, then it could be suggested that some portion of UAP phenomena are also of planetary derivation, even if it is distant. 

An argument that some or most UAC are hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of years old is speculative, but not too difficult to substantiate. We know that some multi-cell organisms such as the Greenland Shark are capable of living for hundreds of years. Although less closely related to humans, some Californian Redwood trees are up to 1000 years old, and the actual limits on lifespan are not fully understood. Given advanced medical technology it does not seem infeasible to sustain complex biology much longer. Given this, certain supposed properties of interstellar ‘civilisations’ become unnecessary. Combined with high self sufficiency, such a craft might operate in the void indefinitely. 

EVTOL/Primitive Analogy

Basic Statement

Imagine an ‘uncontacted’ tribes-person, living in a small village deep in the Amazon jungle, who has never previously been exposed to any modern technology.  What would be the individual’s reaction, should this person witness the distant passing of a modern experimental EVTOL 

Aircraft?

Converting the Environment

Anatomically the tribesperson in our analogy is largely indistinguishable from what may be termed the modern human. But culturally, the tribesman’s lifestyle is in fact closer to the historical norm of most of humanity for the majority of its anthropological history. 

While the precise definition of the modern human is a matter of debate, everyone alive today is descended from persons who lived a ‘hunter-gatherer’ lifestyle, generationally, for maybe 100s of thousands of years. Yet there are those today, residing on the same planet, that are capable of building the EVTOL that startles the groups who have, through quirk of geography, remained in a simpler state.

If we could present a reductionist statement of tool use, it might be that of taking the natural environment of the Planet Earth and converting it to produce a narrow spectrum of conditions that is conductive to the wants and needs of human life. 

What constitutes the earliest example of tool use is lost to the depths of history. But, through careful archeology, study and analysis, it is suggested that basic shaped hand-axes were being constructed in Africa and the lower latitudes of Europe around 2.9 to 1.7 million years ago.

Anthropologists refer to clusters of hand-aze production as  ‘industries’, representing large scale trock chipping activities by what we call proto-hominids.  The earliest of these industries is referred to as the Oldowan, and, while the artifice they wrought might be considered extremely simple by later standards, it was the precedential and required first step in what would become a long chain of tool and technology refinement. 

This progression of what we call ‘technology’ was and still is vast, nuanced, and impossible to adequately surmise in a single discussion. One can study for a lifetime and only know a fraction of the ways in which the materials of the Planet Earth have been chipped, shaped, cut and forged into the useful devices commonly seen today. Modern manufacturing sits at an apex of a chain of processes and methods, all going back through some chain of discovery, replication and development to those early rocks.   

However, the participation in this process is not, on a planetary scale, universal. 

Example: Joby Aviation EVTOL that has at time of writing received testing airworthiness certificate (image credit Joby Aviation)

Analogy Details

Although the vast majority of indigenous peoples around the world have experienced interaction with the outside world, there are estimated to be around a 100 ‘uncontacted’ tribes remaining, mainly in the jungles of the Amazon basin. The people in these groups live with tools and artifice that have not changed substantially for thousands of years, and they have no electricity, running water, and they do not drive cars and have never seen a modern media device such as television or smartphone. Almost every tool they have is made from easily available natural products such as wood, stone, animal hides and twine etc, from which they construct bows, huts, hand axes and other useful implements. Fireplaces and simple pottery are made from clay, and the people wear hand woven clothes and carry animal skin bags. 

While it is the case that the tribes person’’s life is, to themselves, significant, involved and in a sense as internally sophisticated as anyone else on the world, for the purposes of this analogy we’ll refer to them as ‘technologically primitive’. The artifice they understand and wield is substantially less developed than what is known to be physically possible, and while is it perhaps more refined than might be obvious, does not represent the apex of manufacturing as is understood by a ‘modern’ citizen.

It needs little explanation that, in contrast to the tribe, we refer to an EVTOL and it’s production as ‘technologically advanced.’ 

The essential premise then, is that the tribesman could be expected to have very little comprehension of the design, capability, construction methods or any other factor that the passing aircraft represents. Do they attribute it to demons? Gods? Would they ignore it or would they tell stories about it to others in their village? Would it be a portent of doom or a sign of luck? It is perhaps too easy to ascribe a reaction that is superstitious and fearful, being a reaction we might expect of ourselves in a similar situation, but it might be termed ‘reasonable’, given the circumstances.

When it comes to those of us who live in the ‘modern’ society, most understand at least the basic principles of light aircraft, and we do not usually consider a small plane to be inexplicable or other-worldly. There may be some fascination or interest in aircraft, especially from children or the young, and some military aviation may be the subject of controversy or fear, being after all  weapons of destruction and war. But most people know the basic principles of powered flight, the nature of electronics and have a vague, if not exact notion of how materials are forged and refined. We understand there is a pilot sitting somewhere within, that it requires power in order to fly, and have a greater or lesser degree of knowledge enough that it does not give us great consternation when the machine is seen speeding overhead. Perhaps our knowledge isn’t really that advanced, and we are comparatively ignorant of the way the machine works and its design and inner workings. 

However, the simple factor of familiarity and experience mean our reaction is not one of particular mystery or concern.  

Do the UAP study us in some way?

It is true that there exist anthropologists who study primitive tribespeople, and that archaeologists systematically and professionally engage in the examination of less advanced  historical cultures, but this study is a minor subset of wider culture, and not as significant in popular culture as say, a major sports competition or theatrical media. But there is no real conflict between these either: a successful state may possess a university with a cultural department and also a large stadium. 

The uncontacted tribesman in their village are inferior in the technological sense, but it is also the case that they are inferior in the numerical sense. 

This isn’t obvious to them because it requires a broader knowledge of the number of individuals in the modern state, which is an activity of civilization itself. Unless the subject was studied or the information transmitted, it might not even be obvious to those in the ‘advanced’ group. 

(Such knowledge seems trivial when received, but it belies a vast cultural network of communication and politics to obtain it). 

If we suppose alignment with this aspect of the analogy, then the result is that we, as a species, are vastly inferior in number to the UAP that inhabit what is known as ‘outer space’.

Therefore most of the UAP’s interest will be directed towards each other, rather than our own activities.

Ideas pertaining to Contact

1 Some sort of offering might be made. This could be some artefact or cultural item, such as a book or vehicle. This does not have to be some spectacular example of the genre, of massive expense or global significance. But it should have some value, be nicely presented and representative of achievement. 

(There is some documented interest in human nuclear acitvities, but whether this is positive or negative cannot be stated.) 

2 The offering should be placed a way from settlement, and illuminated during the night. Cameras should film the sky and area around it, and they too should be obviously demarcated as such. 

3 We should not be asking ‘what can we get out of it’. Quests for power and prestige on our small marble likely do not play well in the sense of a wider cosmos, and we should mainly be concerned with presenting a respectful countenance, such that it can be done. 

4 Given the substantial technology difference, we can only state that neother we nor our predecessors have been removed from existing – so far. Anything we offer can have been taken long ago, and anything we receive could have been given at any time. We may, however, present some sort of respectful aspect that we might be, in turn, recipients of similar.

Earth Lifeform relevance note

(It should be noted  that, although the human organism considers itself the master of technology on the Earth, we do not hold the title of most numerous creature (crustaceans) or most common by biomass weight (ants))

European lobster (Hommarus gammarus)
Bart Braun

Near Term EVTOL

Outline Description

We can therefore identify that any modern vehicle is, in some sense, a step in the process between a less sophisticated product and a more sophisticated one. If there is some more advanced form of machine that is common in the wider interstellar medium, then our own vehicles can be seen as an intermediate step on the path to our creation of a similar mode of transport.

Let us present an outline of a hypothetical vehicle, constructable in the next 10 years, with a full complement of next gen technology

  •  It flies, by way of electric motors
  • Is capable of vertical take off and landing, but also efficient long range flight
  • Has on board expandable solar panels, so is essentially free from fuel infrastructure
  • can collect, desalinate and filter water
  • Standard aviation instruments: altimeter, airspeed, GPS, auto pilot
    • (suggestion measure of speed in terms of total mass, body lengths per second)
  • It carries by way of information technology a library of essential information, including the entire corpus of known medical knowledge
  • Miniaturised microscopes, sonogram, heart rate monitors etc provide diagnostic equivalent of a hospital department
  • It uses a virtual reality headset combined with exterior view cameras, so has no windows
  • Large data storage, recording and playback
  • It can connect to the global internet, also monitor multi-band radio spectrum 
  • Massive onboard compute and primarily peer-to-peer networking supplants land based data centres and super computers
  • can heat food, via electric induction or microwave
  • possess radar, sonar, meta lens telescopes, and thermal vision
  • A drink tube serves the occupant with choice of multiple beverage
  • Chair is custom moulded to owner’s body
  • Climate is monitored, possibly also the chair pulses and has a ‘heartbeat’ 
  • The occupant will be able to live in entirely within the craft, and require no other housing
  • Occupant may expel liquid waste without leaving seat
  • Seat has upright mode and also reclining option for sleep
  • Option to carry out physical exercise/resistance training without leaving seat 
  • The EVTOL will form social groups with each other, using long distance communication
  • An onboard uv light source can sterilise medical equipment
  • Drug synthesis device can compose small quantities of pharmaceuticals from base reagents
  • Blood assay and micro-pore DNA analysis are part of a sample diagnostic suite
  • Air conditioning, filtration and a choice of perfume/scent
  • Weather monitoring equipment is included on every EVTOL, and the results are collected and used to provide a planet wide model and forecast of the atmosphere. This model is run in distributed form on space computation across the EVTOL fleet, and the results are similarly returned to all nodes. 
  • Buoyant and waterproof enough to survive lake and ocean landing in reasonably calm conditions
  • ‘Angular reaction’ streamliner, a rigid case that moves relative to the internal frame. This aerodynamic streamlining permits direction change by turning to face area of movement, 

New Physics

It the UAP is any guide, we have not yet reached the peak of what is possible with our methods and theories. Developing new techniques and improving existing ones is a longstanding goal, so here is a quick run-down of some areas that might see advancement in the future:

Reactionless momentum

‘Reactionless’ thrust has been a desire of spaceflight engineers for a great while, since the need for expendable propellant is a great cause of inefficiency in rocket design. Pushing against a medium such as air or water or the ground is a common method of generating movement on earth. However, there is (almost*) no medium to push against in the vacuum of space, so movement is generated by throwing a reaction mass away from the moving body in question. 

If momentum could be generated without expending propellant mass, the motion would be vastly more efficient. Energy would still be required to cause movement, but there could be many advantages if it were done efficiently. 

Although linear momentum has never been accomplished (as far as we know), generation of angular momentum by  means of reaction-wheels and gyroscopes has been a common feature in satellites since the early 90s. This, to me, suggests asymmetric linear internally generated momentum is possible. 

If one also considers that for materially transmitted mechanical forces, such as those found in clocks and machines, the conversion of rotational to linear movement by means of rod or linkage is fairly trivial. Then, why can the same not be done in a non-fixed body? 

Mass to energy conversion

The equivalence of matter and energy has existed as a concept in earth physics since 1905, when it was famously derived by Albert Einstein. In 1960, Robert W Bussard proposed a vessel that collected hydrogen molecules from the interstellar void, where it is present in small amounts The Bussard Ramjet used nuclear fusion to provide thrust, though it was very much a theoretical concept and remains so today. But the hydrogen that exists at a density of around 1 atom per cm3 in interstellar space may have some utility as a fuel, given some theoretically effective means of exploiting it as a power source.

Although it has yet to be harnessed outside of nuclear fission, the principle of mass energy equivalence is such that, if exploited at maximum theoretical efficiency, a fine grain of flour could supply the equivalent energy to a gallon of petrol. While we have exploited highly radioactive materials for the generation of power, all known matter has a half life and there may be a way of extracting energy from any mass.

Although most production vehicles using petrol engines typically achieve ranges in the order of 40-50 miles per gallon, vehicles built for maximum efficiency have achieved ranges of 15,000 mpg. It is the case that if the full atomic energy was extracted from the fine grain of flour, it could drive the entire way around earth. But there are many reasons to suspect that physics could create more efficient propulsion still.

Momentum transfer

Another suggestion is that, if stated above and reactionless momentum can be achieved, then there may be a method of transferring momentum from large spinning/moving masses (such as planets) that is efficient and contactless. If this can be done, generating motion could omit the step of generating most of its thrust from converting matter-based or chemical energy and instead ‘redirect’ the existent momentum in the larger masses in the cosmos. 

Redirecting motion with large masses is commonly achieved in space-exploration, as probes use planetary gravity slinging to move around the solar system. If that momentum could instead be stored somehow, it could be redirected or saved for at a time of later use. 

Room temperature superconductors

My suspicion here is that these may not exist as proposed by current physics, but are existent in equivalence by the mastery of heat and cooling transfer and methods. If one can achieve extreme competence in the field of thermodynamics, specifically refrigeration, one can make use of superconductivity as it is already known. There would also be many other benefits to controlling temperatures in such a way. 

Reliability as a technology

We might consider that the aerospace industry is considered a ‘higher’ technology industry than  consumer automotive, but part of the reason for this is the culture of what is considered acceptable risk, rather than the potential that the mechanical methods could actually provide. 

When a surface-travelling motor car suffers mechanical failure, it is far less likely to result in a fatality or serious accident than if the same failure happens to an aircraft in flight. Therefore, aviation is limited by far more stringent regulation at every stage of production and operation, and must build parts and mechanisms with far higher levels of reliability.  

Thus, while powered flight is a common sight in the developed world, there are still far more ground vehicles than there are flying ones. But in terms of mechanics and production, the raw materials that make a car and those that make a helicopter are very similar. If extreme reliability could be implemented at the production level, and safe operation ensured by automatic pilotage and air-traffic control systems, then there is no reason why the number of flying machines could not equal terrestrial vehicle production, or surpass it, using only current methods. Developing new aircraft, and this applies to next-term EVTOLs, suffers from considerable expense related to this area.  

So it might be said that reliability is a technology in it’s own right that has value if it is researched, developed and produced at scale. While failure can never be eliminated entirely, the idea of economic safety at the conceptual – and subsequent technological – level is perhaps still to be perfected.

Having said this, it might not be the case that reliability is a case of perfection, in a rigid sense. We have seen in biology that, in the case of human evolution, errors in copying the genes result in mutations that are sometimes deleterious – but sometimes beneficial. Without a level of error, change would not occur and there would be no life beyond single cell life-forms, if at all.

 Therefore perhaps there is some ratio of error or slack that is not only tolerable but actually useful. 

Building tolerance to error may also be thought of as conceptually different than eliminating the occurrence of error. 

Manufacturing of the NT-EVTOL

Materials on a Planetary Scale

Planetary scale material abundance is not something most people are familiar with. Scarcity is something of an expected factor when dealing with any physical resource or finished product, and it is also typical to view resources in terms of social value, rather than in terms of either complexity or raw numbers. Things may be considered to have more value if they are rare, and sometimes inexpensive items are considered to have little ‘value’, but this can obfuscate their practical effect or just how difficult it is to actually make them from the ‘base’ environment. 

 For example, a biro pen might be constructed from 

-oil extracted from under the desert of Saudi Arabia

-ore mined from Africa, processed in India

-ink from chemicals mixed in Thailand

And there is also a vast web of interconnected and difficult to discern technologies, reliances and networks that consolidate to make this humble product. If we can make many pens, we also need transport. If we need transport, we need roads. If we need roads, we need tarmac. If we need tarmac, we need quarries. If we need quarries, we need drills. Etc…

The financial value of the individual biro pen, in its final form, may be deemed low. As for the economic value of a million pens or so, how can this be calculated? Imagine what the world would be like if the humble pen and paper disappeared from existence. (To give some idea of this, Venezuela in the late 2000s had financial difficulty such that paper became scarce, and one consequence was that doctors had to take notes on their smart-phones.) 

But the social value of the individual biro pen is not great, since it is so common and (apparently) easy to acquire. Owning one’s own light aircraft is something less common, and is attached with financial factors that prohibit most people from considering it. However, when viewed in terms of planetary scale raw materials, an aircraft is perhaps not so greatly distant as a product from things we might consider inexpensive. What if an EVTOL could easily become as abundant, and affordable, as the pen?

In terms of material quantity, within the earth’s crust there are:

Aluminium 2*10^18 tons

Iron (crust) 300 million cubic km

Carbon 60-100 million billion giga tonnes

Of course the crust is a tiny fraction of the total material within the entire earth. 

If we consider other planets and rocky bodies such as asteroids in the solar system, then this is only the start. The question of mass production turns to how easy the materials are to extract, political and financial considerations and the technical ability to make use of them. Production of things like small EVTOLs is not, in the planetary sense, limited by lack of material.

It is far easier to announce something as ‘possible’ than to co-ordinate the design and production of such a device. However, given the described trajectory, it seems reasonable to expect.

Automation in Manufacturing

Apptronik’s Apollo humanoid robot (image from promotional video)

High levels of automation can be problematic for the traditional social employment model, and this is a huge issue that needs addressing. It is also something of a long standing trend that can  be thought of as somewhat equal in significance to the compaction trend.

Historically speaking, as a trend, automation increases in sophistication. Now, in some places, entire factories and warehouses operate with minimal overhead. Automation in transport allows small crews to sail huge ships across the oceans. In farming, fields can be ploughed and crops harvested with far less manpower than ever before.

As of 2023, robotics seems on the cusp of replicating all human ability in practical matters. Humanoid robot systems such as those made by Boston Dynamics and Tesla are close to human dexterity. Warehouses, retailers, agriculture and shipping are introducing systems that replace the activity of human labourers. Replication of intellectual activity by ‘AI’ and machine learning models seems to be close to essentially replicating any activity that could possibly be conceived of. Popular culture is aware of the Large Language Models such as GPT-4 and image generators such as DALLE, that can produce literature and art rivalling human ability. But there have also been significant achievements such as building architectural and component automation that eliminate or greatly reduce huge chunks of design and planning work at the highest levels, compacting processes that would have taken months or weeks by person into activities of specification requiring a few hours of electronic computation.  

’ Automation’ is also being leveraged in the design and research stages of production, at which point the method is usually termed Machine Learning. New materials can be discovered, component design optimised and simulations created using supercomputers. A system of self-sustaining enhancement of machine learning and artificial intelligence has been speculated to form the basis of a ‘singularity’ at which point the further progress of technology cannot reasonably be predicted. I would suggest that an advancing EVTOL is an end product of this.

Having addressed in earlier sections the history and development of technology, an advanced EVTOL seems to sit at the apex of processing of the virgin planet, historically and in practical production. 

The NT-EVTOL, is at least a direction for industrial production and effort to move in. as opposed to war or destruction.  

Miscellany and Further Disscusion

Derivation of technology from study of particular Observations

A significant practical implication that might be drawn, if the EVTOL analogy is accepted, is that observation and study will prove largely unfruitful in the interest of our own development. The uncontacted tribes-person can gain very little from simply watching the EVTOL fly overhead, and we might be similarly expected to glean little from mere observation with our current understanding. 

For governments and others hoping that the study of UAP nets them a slice of technology to beat their competing nations and prevail in the international struggle for power, the unfortunate reality is that, while we have constructed a potential model of their existence, the nature of any UAP interaction is ultimately down to them, not us. While the preceding sections describe a route to similar capability, we should be neither expectant to achieve this soon or disrespectful of the entities that have already achieved it.  

UAP will remain autonomous and self-defining entities, and will do so even as we approach replication of their method.        

The concept of intentional concealment of methods is speculation, however, if it were the case that any type of effort was made by UAP in the direction of disguise, it would be as successful as any other type of technology. We can therefore surmise that visible craft wish for it to be this way.

Further Interaction

If some quantity of the UAP observed are, as implied by the model, simply more advanced beings, then what should be our strategy of interaction and even communication with them? It is not difficult to conclude that if read in basic terms, we, in a more ‘primitive’ state, have nothing to offer in the technical sense, and are in every sense at a disadvantage in any military and economic activity. 

On the other hand, the construct presented of the UAP is that, being self-sufficient and without any requirement for material gain, there is little reason for them to act in a manner of conquest or aggression towards us, any more than the EVTOL has towards a nearby tribe.  

None of the model rules out contact of any sort, but it also alludes to reasons why it has not happened as of yet. Not only the E/P analogy, but in particular The Quantitive Estimation, in my opinion, provides that we significantly overestimate our own importance in the relation to what is ‘out there’. Therefore as a general policy, we should humbly continue on our current trajectory. 

It is to be noted that uncontacted tribes remain uncontacted at the whim of the greater civilisation, and that apart from the most isolated tribes, the vast majority of human peoples living in the Amazon have some level of exposure to the ‘modern’ world. It is not always positive interaction. An estimated 800 indigenous peoples were killed in 2022 as a result of violent interaction with those engaging in economic activity in the forest, such as loggers and miners.

However, the reasons for interacting with indigenous peoples are essentially no different from interaction with any other cultural group or defined social caste. The idea of the EVTOL is not hidden from them out of any position of malice, nor is any technology denied to them for any reason beyond the standard misfortune of low economic standing. However it is understood that for most indigenous peoples, the highest levels of society and wealth will be beyond their attainment. 

A longstanding debate is whether a truly isolated tribe should be intentionally avoided out of genuine concern for the negative effects of modernity, which is perhaps indicative of a general level of mistrust by even the modern person of industrial method. But it is also the case that, should an enterprising member of a tribe travel a great distance, discover a river vessel or outpost, and make contact with some person there, they will most likely return home to report their findings in an uncontested manner.

An outline of the exact systems and living of Amazonian peoples, contacted and uncontacted, is not meant to be the subject of this book, though it is an interesting one. But it serves to loosely illustrate a process by which some technologically less capable society might interact with another.

The subject of ‘primitive’ ways of life  is an interesting one in itself. It may be dismissed by some as having little value, or idealised by others as being free from the ‘corruption’ of technology. But one should be aware of the fact that, although modes of living may be very different now, the vast majority of what we call  human history was experienced by individuals at this ‘primitive’ level of existence. It is always a debate what is considered a modern human, but it can be reliably said that the lifestyle of the uncontacted  tribesman would probably have been very familiar to all our ancestors. If human history can be said to have begun with the Oldowan and the stone-chipping industries, then it progressed very slowly for at least a million years.  

The reasons for this are entirely practical and unsinister. But the result is that the average person does not travel to meet the tribesman in the jungle, and does not seek to enhance them or trade with them in an excessive or effortful manner. Interaction and trade indeed occurs where the people of the jungle meet the people of the city, and it is the isolated groups that are the exception. However, the dwellers in the jungle are treated with no particular relevance. So it is that, if these numerical estimates of UAP are in any way close to useful, their interaction would not be the dramatic wars depicted in hollywood. 

Therefore, while it can be expected that advanced craft have significant understanding of our own technology, they won’t have much in the way of desire to interact with us, either to trade with, enhance, or fight us, and if the analogy holds, they would view us as more of a peculiarity or quaint throwback than anything else

By this reasoning, the idea of considering the earth and it’s civilizations as something special, or as any sort of interest or concern for the UAP individually or as a whole becomes somewhat less likely. We don’t have much idea of the prevalence of Earth like planets, although attempts have been made to quantify the possibility statistically, and there are ongoing astronomical efforts to observe distant planetary systems. But, as the ancient astronomer was confident that there could clearly be only one sun, unique and singular, I believe it is unlikely we live on the only life supporting planet in such a vast potential area. 

Firstly, it is a central tenet of the model that the UAP are not a monolith, and are prolific in variety such that they should be treated as individual units, perhaps rather than representatives of civilizations – as far as it is known at this point. Given the idea of contact though, I would consider the following a sensible strategy:

On relation to previous cosmological theories

While we can’t know for sure the allegiances, politics and group based interaction of UAP in general, the analogy suggests that planet based allegiance may not necessarily be such a significant factor in their affairs as traditional science fiction empires imply. Although originating as multicellular organisms on planets similar to our own, If capable of surviving in space for thousands or perhaps millions of years, and (maybe developing somewhat as they do), the connection to the home planet could be similar to a human’s connection to say the hospital in which they were born – which is to say very little. 

It is commonly assumed that faster than light travel is required to colonise the cosmos. However, the original conclusion of Fermi was that there has been plenty of time to do it at even relativistic speed, given enough time. The principle surprise for Fermi and the astrophysicists of the   was that, as far as could be seen in the sixties, that it had not been done. But a highly sustainable craft of the nature proposed here does not require lightspeed if old enough (see below), and even if there is a hard upper limit on travel then communication can still operate at the level of the radio signal. One quadrant of space may be similar enough to another when viewed from this perspective.   

Such numerical ratios go against the ‘civilisation to civisation’ interaction model commonly supposed in interstellar contact literature, especially if it is supposed that the UAC are most likely entirely non-dependant on specific planetary connection. 

For the uncontacted tribesperson, his family group and tribal structure are very important, but his world consists of little else and he does not travel far. The pilot of the EVTOL is aware of a complex web of allegiances, associations, groups and international relations. He may have a family in some suburb of a town, he may follow a political party or a sports team, and he may be aware of a social order within his company unit. He also exists in the context of the nation that built his EVTOL, and it’s relation to other nations and the different EVTOL that they make. 

Even with no change to the current state of space industry, an entirely united ‘Earth’’ faction seems unlikely to emerge from our own world. Nation states have co-operated in their space activities, but they have also competed, and in addition to these geo-political machinations as of the late 2010s private companies are emerging as competitive factions in rocketry, satellites and exploration. Although it might be that in the face of emergency or external challenge one might have some sense of being ‘human’, and put aside differences in the interest of co-operation in an unforgiving environment, there are myriad political subtleties behind this basic front. It is not unreasonable to suppose that on the scale of millions of years and the distances of trillions of kilometres, a vast number of entities would exhibit more subtle relationships than simple loyalty to a particular clump of rock. The traditional ‘civilization’ based notion of space travel and interaction that is common in academic modelling is perhaps related to the fact that those propagating it exist in high and prosperous social positions that motivate them towards loyalty and maintenance of the concept of a ‘united’ human kind, whereas a chaotic and individualist view is usually the preserve of fiction. The lower one is in a hierarchy, the less one benefits from it, and for any supposedly monolithic organisation there will be many rebels, rogues and independants.    

Having said this, it would also be reasonable to suppose advanced technology brings advanced knowledge and understanding of one’s originating planet, and life-forming planets in general. We can say that introspective study of human history, development and origin is both significant and sophisticated, at least by our own standards. There is no reason to suppose that more advancement would not lead to more study and learning in this field, nor any lack of longevity in memory or preservation of knowledge. 

A simple characterization of intergalactic civilization is the Kardashev scale, named after Nikolai Kardeshev in 1964. The scale describes a space faring species on a logarithmic scale of how much energy they have access to. On this scale, type 1 refers to accessing energy available to a planet, type 2 that of a star and type 3 a galaxy. 

While this scale describes energy access, it does not address potential usage, the assumption being that a larger civilization would simply require more energy to carry out it’s intended goals, whatever they were. In the case of the UAP, it might be suggested that energy usage is efficient to the point that it may not be quantifiable in ways we yet understand. A horse and carriage can be described in terms of the calorie content of the hay required to feed the animal, but if we compare that to the wattage of a car charged by a solar panel, the raw number does not begin to describe the difference of the method. The idea of a hyper-fit horse that is twice as fast and requires half as much hay is conceptually clear, but only begins to describe the difference.

To this end, I think it reasonable to term the science fiction and even much of the hard-science and academic theory as ‘frigates in space’, i.e. it assumes a future space faring vessel would resemble an ocean going ship in many significant ways. The parallels are apparent: the ability to travel over the inhospitable ocean for many months or years, yet with a essential reliance on land based supplies pretty much equivalent to a supposed reliance on planets. Whatever levels of automation were extant at the time of writing, perhaps throw in some humanoid robots, with large crews for larger vessels and the essential idea of a metal box containing cabins and rooms in which humans conduct standard human affairs. 

The compaction model opposes this idea, if not in the short term then definitely in the long run. 

It should be seen, in regards to the model as an ancestor, a historical artefact, necessary as developmental theory but supplanted by more developed notions. Of course, the compaction model may well be supplanted by as yet more subtle and useful understanding.  

The main factor of the model is that it is inclusive of, and supported by the UAP phenomena, especially if it is presented in so much of a dry and uncontroversial form as we can make it.  

The EVTOL example of extremely closely integrated or even replacement biology further supports this idea. 

On conspiracies and Governments

It is, of course, implicit that the methods and operation of the UAP craft are, in the cosmic sense, common. Our own implementation is a matter of human achievement as an independent artefact, but attempts at secrecy by an ‘elite’ are, by this hypothesis, something of an antithesis of the whole concept. That said, if any method were possessed or discovered, it would probably be subject to the same human egocentricity, greed and generosity that applies to any human capability, exotic or mundane. While I believe that development of craft by Humans will occur as something of an inevitability, it may also be, by necessity, incremental. 

NT-EVTOL as an Ideology

If an end product can be made, there is also a question of whether or not enough people want it to be made. 

Employment and economics  has long been a source of contention – who turns the spanners, who is ‘in charge’, who does the dirty, the difficult, the dangerous, and who ‘slices the cake’. 

Sociology is therefore an important science when it comes to manufacturing. We might be capable of building a UAP that contains the ability of a civilisation, but, do we really wish to distribute it equally to ‘everyone’ – our enemies, our friends, those of different nationalities and those of different religions, those who are poor and those who are rich? Although material science may advance to a certain point, politics and mortality are significant factors.

Any thesis, even a purely descriptive one, can be interpreted, mis-used and weaponized in myriad ways.  The Origin of Species can be easily used to rationalise practices such as mass eugenics, racism and war, and we have seen many practical examples in the 20th century of state level facism closely linked to secular nihilist ideology. 

To what extent do ideologies drive destruction, and to what extent do they merely justify what was going to be done anyway?

The Primitive/Evtol Analogy is concerned with the relationship with technology, but it is trivial to suppose that it can and will be presented as evidence the EVTOL and it’s operator is ‘superior’ in some greater moral or hierarchical sense, and that a high tech society and it’s people should have priority over lower ones. 

As previously stated, the industrial base required to produce modern technology is planetwide, and the processes and people involved are vast. Manufacturing and end products exist in a feedback system, so when we build better spades trucks we can afford to dig more ore, and build more spades and so on. 

The development and construction of this theory, and one day an Earth derived craft, should, based on the model, be considered as a collaborative effort going back to pre-history and beyond. Therefore, whilst the putting together these ideas as a theory might be something of a significant marker-point, it cannot be attributed entirely to any one individual, despite the prominence of some authorship/inventor names.

There are of course political implications of the existence of intermediate versions of an NT-EVTOL machine. If widely available, it would be difficult to control the free movement of such craft. A national government can maintain borders when people travel in and out of established ports, airports or land crossings, but when air transport is ubiquitous as such a vehicle might imply, the balance shifts in favour of free movement. 

For me, in terms of the most optimistic appraisal, the EVTOL represents  the mastery of a hostile environment. The EVTOL occupant does not worry about earthquakes, fires or floods, and can escape storms and heat waves easily. 

On economics

I would suggest that, if such a thing were possible, a utopian distribution system for such a vehicle might be developed to avoid traditional monetary finance, and instead operate on a more information based contribution-reward system, i.e. involvement in production entitles ownership of the end product. Money is, as a facilitator of trade, essentially a means of transferring information. If we can, by way of information, enfranchise all those participating in the design, supply chain and construction with one or multiple finished units, we can create a direct incentive that steps over many of the pitfalls of fiscal consideration. But the process is something that is yet to be decided, and I can only offer some loose suggestions.  

Footnotes:

To be added…

Further reading:

For the best treatment of the UAP/UFO subject in general, I recommend the Japanese Wikipedia pages on the topic. (translated to a suitable language if necessary.)